Royce Francis

Royce Francis

Royce Francis

Associate Professor


Email: Royce Francis
Office Phone: 202-994-3892
SEH 2710| Office hours: By appointment

Dr. Royce Francis leads the SEED research group-Strategic [urban] Ecologies, Engineering, and Decision-making. Currently, SEED is focusing on decision-analytic sustainability measurement in infrastructure systems, risk-based management of drinking water infrastructure rehabilitation and renewal, and integration of decision modeling with life cycle cost assessment methodologies for evaluating vulnerability of infrastructure systems to natural hazards. Dr. Francis is a member of the Association for Environmental Engineering and Science Professors, the American Society of Civil Engineers, and the Society for Risk Analysis where he serves as the 2012 Engineering Infrastructure Specialty Group (EISG) Chair.

Dr. Francis' research and professional interests are at the interface between environmental and sustainability engineering and policy, including:

  • Risk and occurrence assessment of emerging contaminants;
  • Bayesian statistical modeling;
  • Water infrastructure development, resilience, and sustainability
  • Infrastructure systems analysis;
  • Regulatory risk analysis


  • Postdoctoral Fellow: Department of Geography and Environmental Engineering, The Johns Hopkins University, 2009-2010
  • Ph.D., Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, 2009
  • Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University. 2009
  • Dissertation Title: Topics in Occurrence and Mixture Risk Assessment Supporting Formulation and Analysis of the Stage II Residual Disinfectants/Disinfection Byproducts (D/DBP) Rule.
  • M.S., Civil and Environmental Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, 2006
  • B.S., Civil Engineering, Howard University, summa cum laude, 2004


Journal Articles

  • Francis, R.A., Geedipally, S.R., Guikema, S.D., Lord, D., Dhavala, S.S., LaRocca, S. (2012). "Characterizing the performance of the Conway-Maxwell Generalized Linear Model." Risk Analysis. 32:167-183.
  • Francis, R.A., Falconi, S., Nateghi, R., Guikema, S.D. (2011) "Probabilistic life cycle analysis model for evaluating electric power infrastructure risk mitigation investments." Climatic Change. 106:31-55.
  • Francis, R.A., VanBriesen, J.M., Small, M.J. (2010). "Bayesian statistical modeling of disinfection byproduct (DBP) bromine incorporation in the Information Collection Rule (ICR) database." Environmental Science and Technology. 44:1232-1239.
  • Francis, R.A., Small, M.J., VanBriesen, J.M. (2009). "Multivariate Distributions of Disinfection Byproducts in Drinking Water." Water Research. 43:3453-3468.

Peer-Reviewed Conference Papers

  • Pita, G., Francis, R., Liu, Z., Mitrani-Reiser, J., Guikema, S., Pinelli, J-P. "Statistical tools for populating/predicting input data of risk analysis models." ICVRAM 2011, College Park, MD.
  • Francis, R., Guikema, S., and Henneman, L. "Bayesian belief networks for predicting drinking water distribution system pipe breaks." PSAM11/ESREL12, Helsinki, Finland.


  • Visiting Scholar: Department of Geography and Environmental Engineering, The Johns Hopkins University, 2010-2011
  • American Society of Civil Engineers (Assoc. M. ASCE)
  • ASCE Environment and Water Resources Institute (EWRI)
  • Society for Risk Analysis (SRA)
  • Association for Environmental Engineering and Science Professors (AEESP)